US consumer sentiment hits 45.2, worst since 2011

American shoppers haven’t been this cautious since 2011. The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 45.2 in October, down 5.3 points in a single month. That is the second-largest monthly drop on record, behind only April 2020, when COVID first upended everyday life.

For brands selling into the United States, this matters more than a recession headline. Sentiment is the mood behind the purchase. And right now that mood is making people hesitate on exactly the decisions marketers care about: household and major purchase confidence each fell by double digits.

Why the political trust flip matters

There is a second shift hiding inside the data: the old political brand advantage on the economy has flipped. In a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, 37% of Americans say they trust Democrats more on the economy, versus 28% for Republicans. As recently as July the two parties were tied. Meanwhile, 59% would rather see the next Congress controlled by Democrats to check President Donald Trump.

Why should a brand manager care? Because political trust shapes regulatory risk, tariffs, tax and trade policy, and the general confidence businesses and consumers feel. Ipsos’s own advice is blunt: companies operating in the US should begin planning now for how a more divided government could change their operations.

Three numbers to put in the strategy deck

• 45.2 — the LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index for October, the lowest since October 2011.
• 5.3 points — the one-month fall, the second-largest on record behind April 2020.
• 25% / 20% — approval for President Trump’s handling of the economy and cost of living, with overall approval at 32%.

What this means for the buyer in your funnel

When purchase confidence falls by double digits, the behaviour that usually follows is defensive: people delay big-ticket categories, trade down where they can, and look for certainty. Tariff understanding is also up 10 points since December 2024, which means more shoppers can connect policy to prices. On AI productivity, workers expect negative outcomes about as often as positive ones, so messaging about efficiency gains may need more proof.

None of this requires a brand to slash prices. It does suggest shifting the emphasis: make the cost of inaction clear, show value in plain terms, and give nervous buyers a low-risk way to commit. Tone matters. A promotional calendar built for boom times can feel tone-deaf when consumers are already worried about major purchases.

Plan, don’t panic

The midterms are next week. If the polling holds, US businesses may face a more contested regulatory landscape. The smart move is scenario planning, not waiting for demand data to confirm what the sentiment index is already telling you. Run a quick stress test on pricing, tariffs, inventory and campaign messaging under two scenarios: one where the current administration retains a friendly Congress, and one where it must negotiate with an empowered opposition.

Source: Ipsos